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OPEC and allied countries have agreed to leave most of their existing oil production cuts in place as the spread of new coronavirus variants prolongs concerns about economic weakness.
OPEC countries led by Saudi Arabia joined with non-members led by Russia to reach the deal in an online meeting Thursday. Most significantly, one million barrels per day in voluntary cuts from Saudi Arabia will remain in place at least through April.
Many analysts had expected a small production increase and the decision not to increase production quickly sent crude oil prices higher. The U.S. contract, which had plunged last year as the pandemic restrictions on businesses devastated demand for energy, spiked 5.6% higher on the day on Thursday to $64.70 a barrel. Brent Crude prices jumped above $67 per barrel, to $67.17, up by 5.10%.
“I hate to disappoint those who tried to predict what we would do,” said Saudi energy minister Abdulaziz bin Salman.
Russia’s deputy prime minister Alexander Novak expressed “careful optimism” that the oil market was stabilizing. Under the deal, non-OPEC countries Russia and Kazakstand can make small production increases.
The so-called OPEC Plus - which includes countries like Russia that are not part of the cartel but have been coordinating production in recent years - made deep cuts in output in 2020 to stave off a collapse in prices.
As more economic activity returned around the world, the group decided to add back 500,000 barrels per day in December. Saudi Arabia in January voluntarily cut 1 million barrels per day, supporting markets for crude oil.
According to delegates, the discussion is now about a rollover of production for all members except for Russia and Kazakhstan, “which will be allowed to boost output by 130k and 20k respectively,” Amena Bakr, Deputy Bureau Chief & Chief Opec Correspondent at Energy Intelligence, tweeted.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s top producer and de facto leader, is proposing a rollover of the current level of cuts into April and May, according to various reports. In addition, Saudi Arabia will be keeping its additional 1 million barrels per day (bpd) production cut in April, too. That extra cut was initially planned to last only in February and March.
Russia, as well as Kazakhstan, were pushing for an increase in the collective production. Russia, the leader of the non-OPEC group of nations in the OPEC+ pact, was reportedly pushing to get an increase in April to meet high domestic fuel demand, according to various sources and reports.
Saudi Arabia, however, as expected, was calling for a more “cautious” approach, with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman saying at the meeting, as carried by Bloomberg.
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05/03/2021
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