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Tribune News Network
Doha
A POLICY briefing published by the Al Jazeera Centre for Studies (AJCS) on 'The Impact of the Gulf Crisis on the Regional Balance of Power', has concluded that if the crisis continued unresolved, this would result in a (new) pattern of relations that would leave its fingerprints on the entire region.
The paper has reasserted that Qatar would never back off from its strong relations and its agreements with Turkey and that it would never switch back to countering Iran for mollifying Saudi Arabia.
The briefing has also noted that the Sultanate of Oman remained keen on strengthening its relations with Iran. As a result of the current Gulf crisis, Kuwait has actually begun to reassess its security and strategic plans, as a precaution against a possible crisis with it, similar to the one currently experienced by Qatar, the paper noted.
On the repercussions of the Gulf crisis on the regional relations, the briefing points out that Saudi Arabia is attempting to reconcile with Iran after its defeat in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, in order to undermine these countries' support to Qatar.
The briefing concluded that much doubt prevails as regards making progress on the sphere of Saudi-Iranian relations in the short run, because of the magnitude of accumulated divisions between the two countries.
On the Saudi-Egyptian relations, the paper predicted further divisions between the two countries despite their rapprochement over the Gulf crisis owing to the possible potential burden to be imposed by Cairo, which is facing a depletion of resources in several fields, on Riyadh.
The briefing traces ostensible rapprochement in Saudi-Israeli relations as reflected in open and covert visits by former Saudi officials to the Jewish state and the Saudi-Egyptian agreement over Tiran and Sanafir islands.
The Saudi rapprochement policy with Israel aims at winning an ally in confronting Iran, in case attempts to resolve the problems hampering Saudi-Iranian relations failed to bear fruit, the briefing noted. Such rapprochement, it added, aims at gaining Israel's support to the blockade against Qatar, in their attempts to subjugate the country.
On the implications of the Gulf crisis on relations with Turkey, the briefing points out that the crisis has strengthened Turkey's role in the region, particularly after Turkish troops arrived in Qatar, a step that has practically helped aborting military escalation plans by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The paper noted that Turkish-SaudiUAE relations experienced a chill, resulting from the ramifications of Turkey's supportive stance to Qatar. Moreover, Turkey's relations with Iran became warmer because of the growing cooperation between the two countries on policy lines and attitudes aiming at maintaining support to Qatar.
The paper concluded assessing the implications of the Gulf crisis on regional relations by stating that it was an exaggeration, at least in the current stage, to describe the changes in relations between the Gulf States and the regional and international powers as a sign of new emerging alliances. Impacted by the Gulf crisis, bilateral relations between some countries have become stronger, while relations in other cases have relapsed into hostility and enmity levels.
