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AFP
London
Britain's economic growth slowed in the first quarter to the weakest pace in a year, official data showed Friday ” a blow for a nation facing heightened tensions over Brexit ahead of June's general election.
Gross domestic product expanded by 0.3 percent in the three months to the end of March, compared with 0.7 percent in the final quarter of 2016, the Office for National Statistics said in a statement.
Analysts' consensus forecast had been for first-quarter growth of 0.4 percent, with the worse-than-expected result mainly attributable to a slowdown in services sector output, the ONS said.
"This weakness is likely to be blamed on Brexit," said Alan Clarke, fixed income strategist at Scotiabank.
"That is probably fair, albeit in an indirect sense. The fears leading up to Brexit were that growth would stall due to a dive in confidence, hiring and investment," he said.
"That hasn't happened. What did happen is the pound dived, pushing inflation sharply higher and that is causing consumer spending and hence overall growth to slow," Clarke added in a note to clients.
The update comes as Britain awaits a general election on June 8 after Prime Minister Theresa May last week called for a snap vote.
The British leader is hoping to shore up her mandate for Brexit in the ballot ahead of two years of gruelling negotiations.
Tensions rose Thursday when May accused the other 27 EU countries of lining up to oppose Britain after Germany's Angela Merkel said the UK should have no"illusions" over the exit process.
EU nation leaders have stressed a united stance as they plan to meet Saturday to set down the bloc's"red lines" -- although the talks will not begin until after the British election.
May started the process of leaving the EU last month, while opinion polls suggest her Conservatives will return to power in June with an increased majority.
EU President Donald Tusk has said Britain must first settle the key divorce issues of"people, money and Ireland" before any talks on a post-Brexit trade deal.
In a letter to leaders of the remaining 27 European Union countries ahead of the summit on Saturday, Tusk said that"before discussing our future, we must first sort out our past."
The EU says the key issues are the fate of three million EU citizens living in Britain and one million Britons resident in the EU, Britain's exit bill estimated at around 60 billion euros ($66 billion), and the fate of the border between Ireland and the British province of Northern Ireland.
The huge forecasted exit bill comes as sharp falls for the pound since last June have pushed up import costs, resulting in higher UK inflation.
"2017 looks set to be a year of slower growth, as higher inflation puts the squeeze on consumers' real incomes ahead of June's general election and the start of Brexit negotiations," said Ben Brettell, economist at stockbroker Hargreaves Lansdown.
"The economy has surprised on the upside since last summer's referendum, powered by a resilient consumer, but it looks like households are now starting to feel the pinch from the current bout of inflation."
Despite higher costs for consumers, analysts expect the Bank of England to keep its main interest rate at a record low 0.25 percent in the face of weaker overall economic growth and uncertainty surrounding the Brexit negotiations.
The pound was up against the dollar after Friday's data, which weighed on London's benchmark FTSE 100 index, featuring a number of companies earning in the US currency.
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29/04/2017
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