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New York Times
ONE of two things could result from the political deal mediated by Roman Catholic bishops, and announced New Year's Eve, in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Either President Joseph Kabila honors the deal, in which case he steps down at the end of the year, elections are held, political prisoners are freed and a political crisis is averted or he uses the time to figure out how he can keep clinging to power.
At this stage nobody knows which it will be. As Jeffrey Gettleman reported in The Times, Kabila, who has already overstayed his term in office, is probably not interested in remaining president for life. Holed up in his Kinshasa mansion, he has shown little interest in ruling Congo, and he has already looted his resource-rich country of untold millions. But like many another rapacious strongmen, the president, who is 45, is also keenly aware that his loot and his life are safe only as long as he has the presidential levers and guns to preserve them.
In theory, the bishops, or the opposition, or some other country, could offer him amnesty and a haven if he left peacefully. But Congo has one of the most violent histories in Africa, and Kabila's brutal police tactics have made him many enemies in his 16 years in office. And he is aware that no offer carries a guarantee Charles Taylor, the equally repressive former president of neighbouring Liberia, left office under international pressure only to be arrested and sentenced to 50 years in prison by an international tribunal.
So there is every reason to be sceptical that Kabila will honour the deal. In fact, while members of both his and the opposition party have signed it, he has not thinking, perhaps, that he can kick the can down the road and that a solution that preserves his power will pop up. It is therefore up to the bishops, the opposition, the United States and others interested in bringing a modicum of democracy to Congo to persuade him that he has been offered the best and only available exit plan.
The United States has already imposed sanctions on some of Kabila's top officials for interfering in the democratic process, and has advised the president that the sooner he steps down the better his chances of avoiding prosecution. Western envoys also have been calling on the president to step down. But more pressure is needed: The Catholic Church, to which about half the population belongs, and which created the deal, can now help mobilise the people behind it.
