THE Obama administration refrained from exulting over last month’s modest nuclear deal with North Korea for good reason. The North has a long history of provocations and violating commitments.

But nobody expected the deal would be pushed to the verge of collapse.

That happened on March 16 when North Korea announced plans to launch a satellite when the country celebrates the 100th birthday of its founder, Kim Il Sung. It’s always hard to puzzle out the North Koreans, but this decision is particularly baffling because it jeopardises the first international agreement of the country’s new leader, Kim Jong Un, Kim’s untested grandson.

Under the deal, the North agreed to suspend nuclear weapons tests, missile launches and uranium enrichment. It also agreed to readmit monitors from the I n t e r n a t i o n a l Atomic Energy Agency who were ejected from the Yongbyon nuclear complex – where the North also produced plutonium for weapons – in 2009. The North has enough plutonium to fuel maybe six to eight bombs.

The planned satellite launch would violate the agreement because it requires a ballistic missile to send it into the sky. Both the North and the US agreed that the deal placed a moratorium on long-range missile launches. US officials also say they made clear in negotiations that a satellite launch would be a “deal breaker.” The North Koreans claim they have a right to launch a satellite for peaceful purposes. Nobody believes they are doing anything other than testing a missile that could deliver a bomb. That is why, after a previous launch in 2009, the UN Security Council demanded a stop to such exercises.

It’s clear from long experience that the North’s nuclear and missile tests can quickly escalate regional tensions.

The turnabout has damaged perceptions of the new leader, suggesting that his word cannot be trusted because he doesn’t make the final decision.