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Swiss action stokes fear of devaluation
Swiss National Bank decision this week to weaken the Swiss
franc has raised fears that other central banks will follow
suit in a wave of currency devaluations.
Since the financial crisis began two years ago, currency intervention
from a major central bank had been seen as unlikely
because foreign exchange moves were too low a priority to
merit attention, much less a consensus among global policymakers.
“The Swiss have broken the glass on beggar-thy-neighbour
exchange rate policy,” said John Normand, global head of currency
strategy at JPMorgan.
The SNB, faced with the
prospect of deflation, said
on Thursday the Swiss
franc’s strength was an
“inappropriate tightening”
of monetary conditions.
The SNB said it intervened
to prevent any further
appreciation.
The Swiss franc, which
had been approaching its
record high against the euro
of about SFr1.43, set in
October, was sold off
sharply after the announcement.
It fell 3.6 per cent
against the euro and 2.9 per
cent against the dollar.
With interest rates
already near zero, currency policy has become a tool for the
Swiss authorities to fight the global economic slowdown.
“If other countries were to follow using this tool, this would
raise memories of the beggar-thy-neighbour policy of the prewar
era and would increase risks of protectionism in general,”
said Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX research at Commerzbank.
“With Japan facing deflation risks at least on the same scale
as Switzerland, it is unsurprising to see market participants
now focusing on the Bank of Japan.”
Like the Swiss franc, the yen has rallied sharply: the Japanese
currency has risen 8 per cent against the dollar since Lehman
Brothers collapsed in September.
Both Switzerland and Japan are export-driven economies
sensitive to the exchange rate. Their currencies were also widely
used before the financial crisis as funding currencies in the
global carry trade, in which low-yielding currencies were sold to
finance the purchase of riskier, higher-yielding assets elsewhere.
As the financial crisis deepened and investors scrambled
to unwind carry trades, both the yen and the Swiss franc were
driven sharply higher.
Analysts believe that the SNB’s action adds to pressure for
Japan to resume more aggressive quantitative easing. But they
said this was likely to focus on BoJ purchases of domestic assets,
rather than foreign exchange intervention.
“We continue to view the yen as a politically more inflammatory
currency than the Swiss franc,” said Ray Farris, currency
strategist at Credit Suisse. This is partly because the yen’s
weight in the US dollar’s real effective exchange rate is 12 per
cent compared with 1.1 per cent for the Swiss franc.
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